Five areas considered most susceptible to mega eartquakes
Scientists have identified several regions worldwide as high-risk zones for future mega-earthquakes, particularly along active subduction zones where tectonic plates converge. Here are five areas considered most susceptible to such catastrophic events:
1. Nankai Trough, Japan
Located off Japan’s Pacific coast, the Nankai Trough is a significant subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. Historical records indicate that this region experiences major earthquakes every 100 to 200 years. The last significant event occurred in 1946. Experts estimate a 70–80% probability of a magnitude 8.0–9.0 earthquake occurring here within the next 30 years. Such an event could trigger massive tsunamis, potentially resulting in up to 323,000 fatalities and causing economic losses up to $1.5 trillion.
2. Cascadia Subduction Zone, Pacific Northwest (USA & Canada)
Stretching from Northern California through Oregon and Washington to British Columbia, the Cascadia Subduction Zone is capable of producing magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes.The last known major earthquake here occurred in 1700.Recent studies suggest a 10–14% chance of a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years.Such an event could result in tsunamis up to 30 meters high, causing widespread devastation across the Pacific Northwest.
3. Hayward Fault, San Francisco Bay Area, California
The Hayward Fault runs through the densely populated East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area.Scientists estimate a 72% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake occurring here before 2045.A major quake could result in hundreds of deaths, tens of thousands of injuries, and leave approximately 411,000 people homeless, with potential property damage exceeding $82 billion.
4. Peru-Chile Subduction Zone, South America
Chile, situated along the Peru-Chile subduction zone, is one of the most seismically active regions globally.This zone has been the site of several massive earthquakes, including the 1960 Valdivia earthquake—the most powerful ever recorded at magnitude 9.5.The region remains at high risk for future megathrust earthquakes due to the ongoing subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American Plate.
5. Vanuatu Subduction Zone, South Pacific
The Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) subduction zone is among the most active globally, frequently producing earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater.This zone poses a significant tsunami hazard to Pacific coastlines.The region's seismic activity is due to the subduction of the Australian Plate beneath the New Hebrides Plate.
These regions are under continuous monitoring by geoscientists to better understand and prepare for potential seismic events.While precise prediction of earthquakes remains challenging, awareness and preparedness are crucial in mitigating their impact.